Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply higher. SK is up 75 cents and near 17.47. SMK is near 482.0. BOK is up the 4 cents limit and near 74.58. CK is up the daily 35 cent limit and near 7.16. WK is up the 50 cent limit and near 9.34. KWK is up the 50 cent limit and near 9.68. MWK is up 60 cents and near 10.67.
US stocks are sharply lower. US Dollar is sharply higher. Crude is up 7 dollars and near 98. Gold is up 59 dollars. Copper, silver, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher. Coffee and cocoa are lower. Dalian soybean, corn, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices are sharply higher.
Not much to say except as some predicted after China winter Olympics and on the anniversary of Ukraine forcing out Putin’s appointed Ukraine President, Russia has invaded Ukraine. Western first sanctions did not deter the attack. Markets await further sanctions. Most doubt additional sanctions will slow or stop the Russia invasion. Corn, wheat and soyoil futures are up the limit. Some feel this attack could disrupt global corn, wheat and sunoil trade matrix.
Russia is the second largest World wheat exporter. Ukraine is the 4th highest wheat exporter. North Africa and Middle east buyers may have to look elsewhere for wheat. Ukraine is the 4th largest exporter of corn. EU, China and Africa are a main buyers of Ukraine corn. What happens if western countries blockade Black Sea exports? China has assured Russia it will provide needed products at discounted prices. Some are now watching China and if they attack Taiwan.
USDA will update the trade this morning with new US 2022/23 supply and demand tables. Some within the USDA have said that they are not yet willing to drop South America crops despite lower private estimates. This could suggest USDA may not increase US 2021/22 corn and soybean demand as much as is needed.
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