Global Ag News for Feb 15.22

TODAY – NOPA CRUSH

Wheat prices overnight are down 19 1/2 in SRW, down 19 in HRW, down 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans down 13 1/4; Soymeal down $0.28; Soyoil down 0.65.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 15 in SRW, down 11 3/4 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 21 3/4; Soymeal down $0.82; Soyoil down 0.46. For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 3/4 in SRW, up 27 3/4 in HRW, up 50 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 22 1/4; Soybeans up 65 1/2; Soymeal up $27.00; Soyoil up 0.39.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 23% in SRW, up 32% in HRW, up 56% in HRS; Corn is up 20%; Soybeans up 14%; Soymeal up 5%; Soyoil up 42%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 55 yuan ; Soymeal down 67; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil up 18; Corn down 3 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 10 ringgit (-0.18%) at 5657.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 17 Oats; 50 Corn; 146 Soybeans; 137 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 14 were: SRW Wheat up 2,855 contracts, HRW Wheat down 990, Corn down 6,473, Soybeans down 2,489, Soymeal up 259, Soyoil down 3,874.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday, mostly north. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

The player sheet for Feb. 14 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 54,920 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 255,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines has issued a tender to purchase around 45,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the new tender is Feb. 15.
• VEGOIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Sunday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival April 5-25. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight and 180-days letters of credit. The deadline for offers is Feb. 16.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers is Feb. 14.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase and import 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by May 31 and arrive in Japan by July 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Feb. 16.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

CROP SURVEY: U.S. January Soybean Crush Seen at 187M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of eight analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Feb. 11-14.

• Soybean crush seen 1.3% higher vs January of last year, and an increase of 0.3% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 2.047b lbs vs 1.799b a year earlier

U.S. Inspected 1.455m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.155m of Soybean

In week ending Feb. 10, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,455k tons vs 1,065k the previous wk, 1,315k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,155k tons vs 1,240k the previous wk, 924k a yr ago
• Wheat: 435k tons vs 434k the previous wk, 425k a yr ago

Brazil Soybean Harvest 24% Complete as of Feb. 10: Agrural

Compares with 16% a week earlier and 9% a year before, according to consulting firm AgRural.

• Center-South winter corn planting 42% done, compared with 24% a week earlier and 11% a year earlier, AgRural says

Corn Farmers Won’t See Incentive to Switch to Soy: Scotiabank

Soybean prices haven’t risen enough to make farmers switch corn acres to soy, Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson says in a note Monday.

• “We disagree with the notion that soybeans will be preferred and therefore remain bullish on increased corn acreage for ‘22” and increased fertilizer application, Isaacson says
• “We don’t think soybean values have risen enough to incent acreage switching.”

Brazil 2021/2022 soybean crop seen at 122 mln T – Patria

Brazil’s 2021/2022 soybean crop forecast was cut to 122 million tonnes from 136.24 million tonnes in the previous projection, Patria Agronegocios said on Monday, citing the effects of a severe drought on the crop.

USDA attaché report pegs Brazil 2021/22 soy crop at 134.5 million T

Feb 14 (Reuters) – The following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Brasilia. The report, dated Feb. 9, was released online on Monday:

“Post lowered its 2021/22 forecast for soybean planted area further, to 39.8 million hectares (ha) and soybean production to 134.5 million metric tons (MMT). From the last estimates, weather conditions have continued to worsen in key producing regions. Principally, the drought in the south of the country has dampened prospects for a record crop. Post consequently also lowered the 2021/22 soybean export forecast to 86.8 MMT. Based on strong yields in the current 2020/21 season, Post revised up its soybean export to 88.9 MMT, a new record. For the 2021/22 MY (marketing year), Post adjusted up the soybean processing forecast to 46.6 MMT. Post maintained the 2020/21 crush estimate at 46.5 MMT of soybeans. The crush forecast and estimate is driven by domestic soy oil demand, which will likely decline when the biofuel mandate is reduced to 10% in 2022. With high prices motivating exports, Brazilian soy stocks will hover at less than 5% of the domestic supply.”

WHEAT/CEPEA: Brazilian harvest is expected to be a record; world supply decreases

Cepea, February 14 – Official estimates released this month show that the current high prices for wheat in the Brazilian market tend to keep large the area allocated to wheat crops. Production is forecast to be high, and the national wheat output may again set a record. In this scenario, farmers – majorly from southern Brazil – are expected to sow wheat in areas that are usually empty during the winter season.

On this month’s report, Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) estimates the 2021/22 wheat crop at 7.68 million tons, stable compared to that forecast in January, but a staggering 23.2% up from that in the previous season. The national area allocated to wheat crops is 17% larger than that in 2020, totaling 2.73 million hectares. Besides, productivity continues estimated at 2.803 tons per hectare, 5.3% higher than that in 2020/21 (2.663 tons/hectare).

Conab revised up import estimates for the period between August/21 – July/22, to 6.8 million tons. Domestic wheat availability (initial inventories + production + imports) is forecast at 14.62 million tons,13.7% up from that in the previous season.

As for demand, consumption in Brazil is estimated at 12.55 million tons, 5.5% higher than that in the season before. Estimates for Brazilian wheat exports (Aug/21 – Jul/22) were revised up too, to 1.9 million tons. Thus, estimates for ending stocks (July/22) were revised down to 176.5 thousand tons.

For the new 2022/23 season, so far, Conab’s estimates point to the same area from 2021, but higher productivity (+2.6%), which would lead to a national output of 7.9 million tons. Conab forecasts 6.5 million tons of wheat will be imported between Aug/22 and Jul/23, and a million tons will be exported.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Wheat sales have been mostly linked to farmers’ needs/interest in making room in warehouses to stock the summer crop, which is currently being harvested. Last week, prices dropped in the wholesale market, influenced by the dollar depreciation against the Real, by 1.88% between February 4 and 11, to BRL 5.226 on Friday, 11.

Data from Cepea indicate that, between February 4 and 11, the prices paid to wheat farmers rose by 0.14% in Paraná (PR) and by 0.10% in Santa Catarina (SC) but remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul (RS). In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations decreased by 0.9% in both RS and SC and by 0.15% in São Paulo. In PR, values rose by 0.31%.

 Malaysia’s Feb. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 496,983 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments climb 23.6% m/m from a revised 402,243 tons exported during Jan. 1-15, according to AmSpec Agri on Tuesday.

Malaysia Feb. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports +18.79% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 18.79% m/m during Feb. 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.

Sao Martinho Approves Additional BRL100m for Corn Ethanol Plant

Board of directors approved an additional investment of approximately 100 million reais for the corn ethanol plant, adjacent to Boa Vista mill, Sao Martinho says in filling.

• Complementary investment in the project is mainly due to the updated scope and greater customization in the distillery, which increases energy efficiency, thereby enabling future expansions of the plant; and the effect of inflation on inputs, parts and equipment during the period
• Plant is expected to be fully operational in October 2022
• It will increase company’s production capacity by approximately 210,000 m³ of ethanol, 150,000 tons of DDGS (Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles), and 10,000 tons of corn oil

Bird Flu Reaches More States, Raising Prospect of New Curbs (2)

• Detections come less than a week after an outbreak in Indiana
• No human cases of the virus have been detected in the U.S.

A strain of influenza deadly to chickens and other fowl has spread to poultry flocks in Kentucky and Virginia, less than a week after an outbreak in Indiana prompted some countries to limit shipments from the state.

Mexico is among countries that have banned or limited poultry imports from Indiana after the virus was detected there, and the wider spread raises the possibility of additional curbs.

The U.S. Agriculture Department’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said in a statement Monday that tests show the virus present in a flock of commercial broiler chickens in Fulton County, Kentucky, and a backyard flock of mixed species birds in Fauquier County, Virginia.

Birds in the two flocks have been quarantined and will be killed, APHIS said in the statement. No human cases of the virus have been detected in the U.S., the agency said. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, these avian influenza detections do not present an immediate public health concern, the USDA said.

The Kentucky farm is one of the thousands that raise chickens for Tyson Foods Inc., the company said in a statement.

Tyson Foods Inc.

While the situation is not expected to impact its overall chicken production levels, Tyson Foods is taking steps to prevent the spread of the virus, including boosting biosecurity measures at other farms in the region, placing additional restrictions on visitors and continuing to test all flocks before birds leave the farms, it said.

“Tyson Foods’ chicken products remain safe: the USDA confirms that avian influenza does not pose a food safety risk to consumers in poultry that is properly prepared and cooked,” according to the statement.

The U.S. said last week it’s expanding surveillance of avian influenza to all four of its major bird flyways after the Indiana outbreak resulted in the death of thousands of turkeys.

A highly pathogenic strain was first discovered in January in the U.S. in a wild American wigeon in South Carolina and then detected in wild birds in North Carolina before being found last week in a commercial turkey farm in Dubois County, Indiana, where 29,000 turkeys were culled.

A serious U.S. outbreak of bird flu in 2014-2015 led to the death of more than 50 million chickens and turkeys and cost the U.S. economy about $3.3 billion in losses, according to a USDA assessment. Eighteen countries –including China, Russia, and South Korea — banned trade of poultry and poultry products from the U.S. Consumers paid higher prices for eggs, with wholesale egg prices at one point doubling from the prior three-year average.*

La Nina Has Peaked, Influence to Persist Until Mid Autumn: BOM

Climate models and observations suggest the 2021–22 La Niña has peaked, and will most likely return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation during the southern hemisphere autumn, the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.

• The Madden–Julian Oscillation has strengthened over the eastern Indian Ocean in recent days
• Most climate models suggest the MJO is likely to progress eastwards into the Maritime Continent in the coming week at moderate strength
• When the MJO is in the Maritime Continent, enhanced cloudiness and rainfall normally occurs over northern Australia, and also across tropical regions to Australia’s north