Global Ag News for Jan 25 22

 TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, up 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal down $0.16; Soyoil up 0.52.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 32 3/4 in SRW, up 35 1/4 in HRW, up 19 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans down 9; Soymeal down $0.04; Soyoil down 0.51. For the month to date wheat prices are up 42 in SRW, up 27 in HRW, down 27 in HRS; Corn is up 28 1/4; Soybeans up 66; Soymeal down $6.80; Soyoil up 5.96.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 70 yuan ; Soymeal down 29; Soyoil down 208; Palm oil down 174; Corn up 10 — Malasyian Palm is up 22. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 22 ringgit (+0.42%) at 5282.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 21 Oats; 50 Corn; 316 Soybeans; 143 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 24 were: SRW Wheat down 2,718 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,246, Corn down 5,103, Soybeans up 4,362, Soymeal down 3,315, Soyoil up 1,687.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

The player sheet for Jan. 24 had funds: net buyers of 13,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 9,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: U.S. exporters sold 150,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• SOYBEAN SALE: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, including 66,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2021, and 66,000 for 2022/23 delivery.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 47,841 tonnes of food-quality wheat from Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday and Friday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice which closed on Jan. 16 was $421.99 a tonne CIF liner out, officials and traders said. Offers were still being considered and no purchase had yet been made, they said.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines tendered to purchase around 35,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat,
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 46,344 tonnes of rice to be mainly sourced from China with some from Thailand
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 6,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

 TODAY

In week ending Jan. 20, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 1,298k tons vs 1,727k the previous wk, 2,103k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,116k tons vs 1,237k the previous wk, 1,403k a yr ago
• Wheat: 401k tons vs 384k the previous wk, 572k a yr ago

Kansas, Oklahoma See Declines in Winter Wheat Conditions: USDA

• Kansas winter wheat rated good or excellent fell to 30% on Jan. 23 vs 33% on Jan. 2
• Oklahoma good/excellent rating fell by 4 percentage points to 16%
• Texas had 71% rated as poor or very poor

Brazil Ports See Growing Lineups for Late Soybean Harvest

Brazil’s 2022-23 soybean harvest is late and lineups are increasing ahead of when most shipments hit ports in February, says Marcos Pepe Bertoni, chief operating officer at Corredor Logistica e Infraestrutura SAat Tegram grain terminal.

• Soybean backup is currently above 8m tons, twice as big as the beginning of January, with vessels waiting while some companies finish exporting corn or importing fertilizers
• “Before last week, it would take 14-16 days of wait for a ship to arrive, load and sail,” Bertoni says. “From now on we should see a 30-day waiting time by the beginning of February.”
• Those arriving today will leave by Feb. 25, which is “not the pace we forecast before.”
• The delays are bringing more immediate demand to the U.S. for March and April deliveries as Brazilian shipments run behind and buyers are “forced” to secure grains
• Brazil’s harvest is 5% complete, according to consultancy AgRural
• Harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s biggest producing state, is 13% done, according to Instituto Mato-Grossense de Economia Agropecuária

Malaysia’s Jan. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 829,022 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments fall 33.3% m/m from 1,242,761 tons exported during Dec. 1-25, according to AmSpec Agri on Tuesday.

Malaysia Jan. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports to EU 183,346 Tons: SGS

Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.

• EU imported 183,346 tons; -39.6% m/m
• India imported 172,930 tons; -28.7% m/m
• Rest of Asean imported 86,960 tons; +19.5% m/m

Malaysia Jan. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports -32.94% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 32.94% m/m during Jan. 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.

WHEAT/CEPEA: Despite low liquidity, prices continue to rise in BR

Cepea, January 24 – Wheat values are still rising in the Brazilian market, despite low sales this month. Valuations reflect the offseason, price rises abroad and the fact that farmers have made cash flow.

According to Cepea collaborators, farmers are currently focused on summer crops, being paid for the wheat sold late last year. Thus, deals have been sporadic, to make room in warehouses for the current crop. Liquidity is expected to increase from February onwards.

Data from Cepea indicate that, between January 14 and 21, the prices paid to wheat farmers rose by 1.29% in Santa Catarina (SC), 0.40% in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and 0.09% in Paraná (PR). In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased by 1.11% in PR, 0.34% in São Paulo and 0.25% in RS – in SC, prices remained stable. The US dollar dropped by 1.18% in the week, closing at BRL 5.457 on Friday, 21.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between January 10 and 14, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná State was USD 312.69/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.6033, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,752.09/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was lower, at BRL 1,6667.25/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the import parity for the product from Argentina would be of USD 293.30/ton (BRL 1,643.41/ton), against BRL 1,594.28/ton on the average of the state surveyed by Cepea.

IMPORTS – According to Secex, until the second week of January, wheat imports averaged 21.59 thousand tons per day, against 32.21 thousand tons in Jan/21, 33.2% down. Import values are at USD 273.5/ton FOB origin, on average, 13.7% up from that in the same period of 2021 (USD 240.6/ton).

European Winter Grain Crops Benefiting From Mild Weather: MARS

Winter crops in Europe have had favorable conditions due to relatively mild temperatures and normal precipitation across most of the continent, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday in a report.

• “These conditions allowed stands that were lagging behind in development to partially catch up, and currently, winter crops are generally in fair to good (or very good) condition”
• No significant frost damage seen so far in winter-grain fields
  • However, most areas have only built up a weak tolerance to frost due to the mild weather, which is a risk in case of cold snaps
  • That’s a particular concern in areas near the Black Sea where snow cover is limited
• There’s been a significant increase in rapeseed plantings versus last year, while grains hold stable
• In North Africa, grains in Morocco are facing persistent drought and rain is needed imminently in western, central Algeria

Brazil’s soybean harvest reaches 5% as Mato Grosso gathers pace -AgRural

The harvesting of Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop has reached 5% of the estimated area as work in top producing state of Mato Grosso picked up pace under improved weather conditions, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

The figure, which takes into account areas harvested as of last Thursday, came in 4 percentage points above the previous week. In 2020/21, when the oilseed was planted later due to weather issues, harvesting had reached 0.7% by this point.

AgRural said soybean yields in Mato Grosso were satisfactory, while in the southern state of Parana they remain low due to a severe drought. In Rio Grande do Sul, also affected by the lack of rainfall, harvesting had not yet started.

“In the rest of the country, crops are developing well and the harvest is beginning in several states. Despite some losses due to excessive rains in Matopiba (a five-state area located mainly in northeastern Brazil) and Minas Gerais, expectations point to a great crop in all of these states,” the consultancy said.

AgRural currently sees Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop at 133.4 million tonnes.

As the oilseed harvesting gathers pace, the consultancy also noted the planting of Brazil’s center-south 2022 second corn crop had reached 5% of the estimated area, also buoyed by Mato Grosso.

It noted that corn sowing in Parana was being affected by lack of soil moisture, which could lead to some areas being replanted if it does not rain in the coming days.

Urea Price Drops Signals Spring Ammonia Correction

Urea’s relative value portends a steep drop in ammonia prices ahead of spring demand. Spring anhydrous offers remain at $1,300-$1,350 a short ton in the Corn Belt despite urea’s 27% drop from December’s peak of $855 a ton. On a nutrient basis, ammonia is trading at the highest premium to urea since October 2008. Should the products return to an average spread, ammonia would trade at $900 a ton in the Corn Belt, down $450 from the prompt price. Large anhydrous applications in 4Q suggest corn farmers will switch to more economical urea in spring.

CF Industries and Nutrien are the largest publicly traded North American ammonia producers. U.S. farmers apply anhydrous ammonia in the fall and spring, with the former being the larger season.

Biden’s Electric Vehicle Push Unites Warring Oil and Corn Allies

• Lawmakers warn EV mandate deepens U.S. reliance on China
• Biden is requiring U.S. government to buy zero-emission cars

Lawmakers who support the rival petroleum and ethanol industries have joined forces to oppose the Biden administration’s push to electrify the federal vehicle fleet, marking a rare moment of unity between oft-warring interests.

Fifty Republicans — including 17 from oil-rich Texas and 21 from the Corn Belt — warned President Joe Biden that his executive order requiring the federal government to purchase only zero-emission vehicles risks forfeiting climate progress and will make the U.S. dangerously dependent on China.

The effort reflects a public detente between warring oil and biofuel interests, which see electric vehicles as a common enemy.

Biden’s executive order, issued in December, requires federal agencies buying light-duty vehicles to make those zero-emissions models by the end of fiscal year 2027.

Because almost all critical minerals required to manufacture electric vehicles are sourced from China or countries where China is a significant investor and influence, “this executive order creates a dependency on foreign adversaries,” said the lawmakers in a letter released Monday, spearheaded by Representatives Ashley Hinson of Iowa and August Plfuger of Texas.

The EV-procurement mandate, the lawmakers say, also ignores the opportunity to immediately cut costs and emissions using high-octane liquid fuels, ethanol and renewable diesel. “Instead of signing orders that will be costly, may have a slight carbon emission reduction over 15 years away and bolster our greatest foreign adversary — China — you ought to be turning to the liquid fuel sector for real solutions,” they told Biden.

Biofuel and oil refiners have long been on the opposite sides of the federal Renewable Fuel Standard, a mandate that requires the alternatives such as corn-based ethanol be mixed into the nation’s gasoline and diesel. The effort could breed more collaboration on the future of that biofuel program, since the law doesn’t explicitly dictate biofuel-blending targets beyond 2022.

LATAM CROP WEATHER: Rainfall Helps Crops in Brazil, Argentina

Beneficial precipitation is falling over southern Brazil and Argentina, a weather pattern that’s expected to continue for a few days with irregular rainfall and distributions, said Somar Meterologia.

• Rain will be ongoing for the next 3-6 days and will aid crops, specifically soybeans and corn, before another dry period starts in southern Brazil and Argentina
• In Brazil, Mato Grosso and central regions are seeing limited rains, which is good for fieldwork
• Paraguay will maintain high temperatures and rain is forecast until the end of the week
• In Argentina, helpful rains have been falling since last week, but dry conditions will return in February