Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 1 cent and near 12.65. SMZ is near 372.1. BOZ is near 58.71. CZ is up 3 cents and near 5.73. WZ is up 19 cents and near 8.42. KWZ is up 20 cents and near 8.56. MWZ is up 20 cents and near 10.30.
US President will speak Tuesday on the economy. US Central Bank considering higher rates to slow inflation or keep accommodating to help slowing economies due to new Covid cases.
Short week with CBOT closed Thursday for holiday and Friday closes at noon. US along with Japan are considering releases Crude oil reserves. Russia and Ukraine tension on the rise.
US Midwest weather dry. EU and Black Sea dry. Argentina has rain in forecast. Brazil weather favorable.
KC wheat sharply higher. Wet Australia weather helping prices. Dry US spring also supportive. World wheat buyers short, buying only hand to mouth. No 2022 coverage. KC futures could test 9.00. End users may add to long futures to reduce risk going into the holidays. Demand is higher than supply. Trade estimate of US 2021/22 wheat carryout from 570-640 depending upon final exports.
Corn futures may be in a 5.40-6.00 range until more is known about US export demand and SA weather. China has been active in buying French feed wheat, Ukraine corn and US sorghum. Is US corn next? Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,290 mil bu vs USDA 1,493 due to higher demand.
SF found resistance near 13.00. 12.50 is key support. Soybean supported by positive US crush margins. US C IL soymeal basis +$30 and well above normal. Some feel US soybean yield could drop in Jan. Market still concerned long term about slow US export shipping pace and talk US carryout closer to 400. Trade estimates US 2022 soybean acres near 88.0, crop 4,540, carryout near 500.
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