Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are higher with S&P 500 and Dow futures registering a new record high. Recent strength in futures is linked to comments from Federal Reserve officials reiterating pledges to refrain from tightening monetary policy until the labor market has recovered.
April nonfarm payrolls were up only 266,000 when an increase of 998,000 were expected. Private payrolls were up 218,000 when a gain of 893,000 were anticipated and manufacturing payrolls were down 18,000 when an increase of 55,000 was estimated. The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% when 5.8% was predicted.
The 2:00 central time March consumer credit report is expected to show a $17.7 billion increase.
The technical picture remains supportive for stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index declined after Federal Reserve speakers downplayed the risks of higher inflation and there were additional sharp declines when the disappointing U.S. employment data were released.
The euro currency is higher on news that German industrial production increased in March, beating expectations. Total industrial output, which is comprised of production in manufacturing, energy and construction, increased 2.5% in March from February. Economists had forecast a 1.8% increase.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures quickly advanced when the weak U.S. employment data were released.
On Thursday Federal Reserve speakers downplayed the risks of higher inflation. Eric Rosengren said inflationary pressures should be short-lived and should not lead to a pullback in monetary policy, while Loretta Mester said she expects to be deliberately patient unless there is clear evidence that inflation pressures will push inflation to exceed the Fed’s target.
In my minority view, I am seeing indications that the global economy will continue to improve, but growth may not be as strong as many analysts are predicting.
GOLD AND SILVER FUTURES
The double top in June gold futures at 1799.5 on the daily chart was taken out yesterday with follow-through gains today.
Most major central banks will probably keep their accommodation for longer, which remains a bullish influence on the precious metals.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are higher with S&P 500 and Dow futures registering a new record high. Recent strength in futures is linked to comments from Federal Reserve officials reiterating pledges to refrain from tightening monetary policy until the labor market has recovered.
April nonfarm payrolls were up only 266,000 when an increase of 998,000 were expected. Private payrolls were up 218,000 when a gain of 893,000 were anticipated and manufacturing payrolls were down 18,000 when an increase of 55,000 was estimated. The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% when 5.8% was predicted.
The 2:00 central time March consumer credit report is expected to show a $17.7 billion increase.
The technical picture remains supportive for stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index declined after Federal Reserve speakers downplayed the risks of higher inflation and there were additional sharp declines when the disappointing U.S. employment data were released.
The euro currency is higher on news that German industrial production increased in March, beating expectations. Total industrial output, which is comprised of production in manufacturing, energy and construction, increased 2.5% in March from February. Economists had forecast a 1.8% increase.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures quickly advanced when the weak U.S. employment data were released.
On Thursday Federal Reserve speakers downplayed the risks of higher inflation. Eric Rosengren said inflationary pressures should be short-lived and should not lead to a pullback in monetary policy, while Loretta Mester said she expects to be deliberately patient unless there is clear evidence that inflation pressures will push inflation to exceed the Fed’s target.
In my minority view, I am seeing indications that the global economy will continue to improve, but growth may not be as strong as many analysts are predicting.
GOLD AND SILVER FUTURES
The double top in June gold futures at 1799.5 on the daily chart was taken out yesterday with follow-through gains today.
Most major central banks will probably keep their accommodation for longer, which remains a bullish influence on the precious metals.
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