Written Commentary
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 7 cents; Soybeans up 21; Soymeal up $8.00, and Soyoil up 80 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 75 yuan in soybeans, up 21 in Corn, up 46 in Soymeal, up 96 in Soyoil, and up 124 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 120 ringgit at 3,875 (basis March) on tight supply concerns.
In Brazil, conditions will still be mostly favorable for crop development. There will be some dryness in pockets of the far south; though, rain will occur enough to prevent serious crop stress. The far northeast will also still have some dryness.
In Argentina, erratic shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to benefit some of the region and leave pockets of the region with increasing crop stress. Meaningful rain will increase in coverage for Sunday through next Tuesday due to a frontal boundary. Last evening’s model run showed a notable increase of rainfall in central Argentina Jan. 15 – 17.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 11,000 SRW Wheat; bought 25,000 Corn; net bought 30,000 Soybeans; bought 8,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 12,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 47,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 382,000 Corn; net long 252,000 Soybeans; net long 99,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 128,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 12,400 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,100; Corn up 12,200; Soybeans up 10,800 contracts; Soymeal up 1,000 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,600.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; Rice 14; and 25 Soybeans.
There were changes in registrations (Rice up 7; HRW down 22)—
Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 76; Soyoil 1,313 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 458; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.
Tender Activity—Japan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat— seeks 50,000t optional-origin wheat—Ethiopia cancelled 600,000t wheat deals made in November— Turkey seeks 155,000t optional-corn—
CME RAISES WHEAT FUTURES (W) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 10% TO $1,650 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,500 FOR MARCH 2021
CME RAISES SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 14.6% TO $2,750 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,400 FOR JAN. 2021
CME RAISES CORN FUTURES (C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 17.9% TO $1,100 PER CONTRACT FROM $975 FOR MARCH 2021
CME LOWERS CRUDE OIL FUTURE NYMEX (CL) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 4.7% TO $4,525 PER CONTRACT FROM $4,750 FOR FEB. 2021
CME CUTS LEAN HOG FUTURES (LN) MARGINS BY 22.8% TO $2,200 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,850
China will complete a new national crop germplasm bank this year, the agriculture minister said on Wednesday, to boost the country’s capacity to develop new crop varieties and enhance food security.
The bank has a designed capacity of 1.5 million copies, almost four times the existing one, and will be the world’s largest, the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement on the ministry’s website.
Grains powerhouse Argentina is suffering a rainfall deficit of 150 to 30 milimeters with forecasts promising less moisture than necessary to fully refresh parched soy and corn fields, weather experts said as worry persisted about yield losses.
Argentine farmers will hold a 72-hour strike from Monday to protest a government decision to temporarily suspend corn exports, three of the country’s main rural associations said Tuesday. The South American grains powerhouse last week announced a two-month halt in corn exports from the world’s No. 3 supplier in a bid to control domestic food prices amid a long recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agricultural associations CRA, SRA and CONINAGRO said the measure was “detrimental” both to their interests and those of Argentina, and demanded President Alberto Fernandez immediately review the decision.
Argentina’s grain inspectors’ union, Urgara, said on Tuesday it was continuing to negotiate with agro-export companies anxious to end a 28-day strike that has stalled operations in some of the country´s top agricultural ports. he union wants salary increases and a one-time bonus for workers who stayed on the job through the COVID-19 crisis. Its members walked off the job on Dec. 9.
Paraguay soybean production outlooks tentatively unchanged as recent rains stem yield losses – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2020/21 Paraguay soybean production: 9.4 [8.6–10.1] million tons, unchanged from last update
2021/22 Russian wheat crop seen stable as mild weather set to continue.
Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen to 26.41 million tonnes in the year that runs until June from 31.49 million at the same date in 2020, economy ministry data showed on Wednesday.
Traders sold 12.51 million tonnes of wheat, 9.73 million tonnes of corn and 3.78 million tonnes of barley, the data showed.
European wheat futures in Paris rose to a new two-year high on Tuesday, supported by concerns over risks to South American grain supplies and firm wheat prices in the Black Sea region. Front-month March milling wheat unofficially closed up 3.00 euros, or 1.4%, at 217.25 euros ($267.24) a tonne. It earlier hit 218.25 euros, a new life of contract peak and the highest spot price since August 2018. Chicago wheat set a fresh six-year high.
About 62,000 turkeys and ducks will be slaughtered after bird flu was found on more poultry farms in Germany, authorities said; type H5N8 bird flu was confirmed in two farms in the Cloppenburg region in the northern state of Lower Saxony, the Cloppenburg local government authority said.
Cloppenburg is one of Germany’s leading poultry production areas.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for December rose 16.8 percent to 1,624,757 tonnes from 1,390,685 tonnes shipped during November, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
Malaysia’s palm oil production will likely increase by nearly one million ton this year, while Indonesia may see a rise of 4.5 million tons, the chairman of commodity consultancy firm LMC International said Wednesday. Globally, crude palm oil production is expected to rise by over six million ton following 2020’s depressed output, James Fry told a virtual conference. Leading biodiesel consumers, such as U.S. Indonesia, Germany and Brazil, will continue to support biodiesel mandate which will lend support to the prices.
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