Written Commentary
AM Outlook
Grains are mixed. SX is up 1 cent and near 9.69. SMV is near 310.2. BOV is near 33.15. CZ is unchanged and near 3.59. WZ is down 5 cents and near 5.44. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 4.69. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher on EU economic concerns. Crude is lower on demand concerns. POTUS is moving toward decoupling US and China economies. US election is 56 days away.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 26 yuan in soybeans, up 9 in Corn, up 9 in Soymeal, up 106 in Soyoil, and up 66 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 43 ringgit at 2,847 (basis November) at midsession following rival veg oils.
Over the weekend parts of SD, MN, E IA, WI, N IL, N IN and OH saw .75-2.50 inches of rain. Rains should move across the Midwest early this week. Temps are normal to below. Next week should be warmer and drier which should help early corn harvest. Europe, Black Sea and Argentina are dry.
One big market mover this week will be Friday USDA reports. Average trade guess for the corn crop is 14,891 mil bu versus USDA Sep guess of 15,278. Average trade guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 2,461 mil bu versus USDA 2,756. Average trade guess for World 2020/21 corn carryout is 311.1 mmt versus USDA 317.5.
Average trade guess for the soybean crop is 4,292 mil bu versus USDA Sep guess of 4,425. Average guess for US 2020/21 soybean carryout is 469 mil bu versus USDA 610. Average trade guess for World 2020/21 soybean carryout is 93.5 mmt versus USDA 95.4.
Average trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 926 mil bu versus USDA 925. Average trade guess for World 2020/21 wheat carryout is 316.1 mmt versus USDA 316.8.
On Friday, Managed Money were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 15,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 19,000 Corn; net long 176,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 79,000 Soyoil.
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